IOWA POLL: OBAMA OPENS DOUBLE-DIGIT LEAD (A SWING STATE TURNING BLUE)

By THOMAS BEAUMONT • COPYRIGHT 2008, REGISTER & TRIBUNE CO. • September 13, 2008

Democrat Barack Obama has established a double-digit lead over Republican John McCain in Iowa as the presidential race in this Midwestern battleground enters its critical fall stretch, according to The Des Moines Register's latest Iowa Poll.

The poll, taken in the wake of the parties' national conventions, shows Obama favored by 52 percent of Iowa likely voters, compared to 40 percent for McCain.

Although only 5 percent were undecided, the race remains fluid, with one in four voters saying they could still be persuaded to vote for another candidate in the seven weeks left until Election Day. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Top campaign advisers to Obama and McCain have said Iowa, where the past two presidential elections have been decided by 10,000 votes and fewer, is in the top tier of swing states. However, there are signs in the poll that Obama has a healthy advantage among key voter groups here.

Chief among them are independents, 49 percent of whom say they prefer Obama, compared to 36 percent who say they support McCain.

McCain's advisers have said they believe he can win Iowa by turning out the Republican base and by appealing to independents drawn to his maverick streak on issues such as immigration.

Mark Benson, an independent voter from LeClaire, said he might have considered voting for McCain, but feels the Arizona senator has catered during his campaign to the Republican base.

"He's not going to change anything. He's just going to push for four more years of Bush," said Benson, a 51-year-old retired police officer. "And if he does get in there and becomes a maverick, he'll have so much trouble in his own party, he won't get anything done."

Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and independent candidate Ralph Nader did not factor significantly in the poll, with neither candidate receiving more than 2 percent of likely voters.

The poll, taken Monday through Wednesday by Selzer & Co., came on the heels of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn., where delegates enthusiastically received McCain's running mate Sarah Palin.

The Alaska governor, who has five children, is seen by the McCain campaign as having special appeal among women. But Obama led by a healthy margin among Iowa women voters, 53 percent of whom preferred the Illinois senator, compared to 39 percent for McCain.

Ames Democrat Virginia Dowling said she supports Obama in part because of his call for greater emphasis on the war in Afghanistan as an approach to fighting terrorism. She also likes his proposal for middle-class tax cuts as a remedy for the ailing economy.

"More than anything, I think he's a fresh face and he has a longer history of working together with people to come up with change," said Dowling, 61, a retired physical therapist. "That's the approach we need for government."

McCain's choice of Palin as his running mate helped solidify the support of New Sharon Republican Becky Harkema, who had been weighing both candidates. The first-term governor's story of a small-town mayor and mother who rose to power was inspiring to Harkema, a 43-year-old nonprofit administrator.

"After McCain selected her I was more convinced I would vote for him," Harkema said. "She worked her way up and she speaks the truth."

McCain supporters were more satisfied with Palin as his running mate than Obama's supporters were with his selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden.

Nearly 80 percent of McCain's supporters described themselves as very satisfied with Palin's selection, while only a handful say they wish he had chosen someone else. Roughly half of Obama's supporters said they were very satisfied with Biden on the ticket, while nearly 20 percent said they wish he had chosen a different No. 2.

Des Moines Democrat Sonia Lewis was disappointed Obama had chosen Biden, but said it would not deter her support for the Democrat ticket.

"I really didn't think that was the right choice," the 48-year-old secretary said. "I would have preferred Hillary Clinton."

The poll underscores some key advantages Obama has had in Iowa.

He visited dozens of times last year and built a statewide network of volunteers on his way to a decisive victory in Iowa's leadoff nominating caucuses last January.

McCain campaigned in Iowa less often and ran a scaled-down caucus operation, finishing in a close fourth-place in the GOP caucuses before rebounding in the New Hampshire primary.

Democrats also enjoy their largest voter registration edge over Republicans in roughly 20 years -- more than 94,000 out of roughly 2 million voters, according to August statistics from the Iowa Secretary of State.

The poll's findings also underscore Obama's popularity among younger voters. Those under 35 years old preferred Obama over McCain by a 2-to-1 margin.

Still, McCain has some advantages that could be meaningful on Election Day. More than half of voters who describe themselves as evangelical Christians favor McCain, compared to less than 40 percent who back Obama.

Social conservatives, a group that was slow to endorse McCain, were seen as influential in helping Republican George W. Bush carry Iowa in his re-election campaign four years ago. Born-again Christians in Iowa preferred Bush over Democrat John Kerry by a slightly wider margin, according to the Register's October 2004 poll.

The new poll also showed that Obama's and McCain's supporters judged the Republican as best able to keep America secure, a top priority reflected in the poll. McCain also was seen by a healthy majority of this group as having the needed experience to lead, with less than a third saying Obama had the necessary experience.

But Obama was seen by the combined group of supporters as best able to fix the economy, most likely to be successful in unifying the country and best able to win the respect of world leaders. Each trait rated most important by a larger percentage than having experience.

"I think McCain has more experience to lead," said Dowling of Ames. "But there comes a point in time when experience is not the whole thing. It's about can you get things done. We just need something different."